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Bookmakers use their own soccer prediction models. Their odds are usually calculated in a way that minimizes the payoffs for match favorites. The accuracy of these predictions can be analyzed by comparing between the betting odds and the real outcome of soccer matches.

This article compares between the accuracy of the soccer predictions made by bookmakers during 2008/09 and the first half of 2009/10. The comparison is based on the average betting odds from the top European soccer leagues.

Data and methods

To compare the accuracy of the bookmakers’ predictions, the authors of this article analyzed the match outcomes and average betting odds of the following 10 major European soccer leagues: Austrian Bundesliga, English Premier League, Dutch Eredivisie, French Ligue 1, German Bundesliga 1, Greek Ethniki, Italian Serie A, Scottish Premier League, Spanish Primera Division and Turkish Super Lig.

The outcome of a match was estimated on the basis of the average payoff offered by the bookmakers for that match. The possible profit of a bettor who bets on bookies’ favorites was calculated according to the average betting odds.

Summary

The conclusion was that the bookmakers successfully predicted the outcome of more than 54% of matches during the seasons 2008/09 and 2009/10. Thus, the average accuracy of bookmakers’ soccer predictions is relatively high in the case of major European leagues. Nonetheless, the low profits make these predictions highly unprofitable as betting tips.

1×2 betting:

— Losses of -4% and -2% respectively were estimated for bettors, who used fixed odds as betting tips.
— The only profitable league during those two seasons was Austrian Bundesliga (+14% and +6% of profit) with more than 60% of correct match predictions.
— The most unprofitable leagues were Scottish Premier (-22% and -6%) and German Bundesliga (-11% and -6%).
— The most drastic improvement in 1×2 betting profits was observed for the Dutch Eredivisie league where the profit changed from -11% to +8%.
— The most drastic degradation in 1×2 betting profits was observed for the Turkish Super Lig league where the profit changed from +4% to -18%.

Total under/over bets are the most unprofitable:

— Total under/over 2.5 losses were nearly the same during both seasons and equal to 10%.

The conclusion is that using bookmakers’ soccer predictions as betting tips does not pay off in daily betting. Though the accuracy of their predictions is high, their odds do not result in betting profits.

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Five Champions’ League semi-finals in the past six years. As Chelsea’s newly appointed manager, Carlo Ancelotti, pointed out in his first interview, that is a wonderful achievement. However, it clearly isn’t quite good enough. The fact that those five semi-finals have only resulted in one ill-fated final appearance must be a source of incredible frustration for Chelsea’s billionaire owner, Roman Abramovich, and the club’s supporters – although a little less so for them, perhaps.

The reason the long-standing Chelsea fans might be a little more philosophical about ‘only’ reaching one final in five attempts is that many of them are probably still only just getting used to challenging for honours at all. Until 1997, when Chelsea won the F.A. Cup, the club had won nothing for 26 years – unless you include the old Second Division title. Chelsea’s fortunes in the 1980s, after they had been bought by Ken Bates for the princely sum of £1, slumped to such an extent that they almost found themselves in English football’s third tier.

But how it turned around during the last decade of the century. Even before Abramovich’s arrival in 2003, the process of recovery had started. Managers of the international pedigree of Glenn Hoddle, Ruud Gulli, Gianluca Vialli and Claudio Ranieri all helped establish the club as one of England’s leading outfits and the F.A. Cup was won in 1997 and 2000 and the UEFA Cup Winners’ Cup in 1998. The Chelsea of this time were ground breakers in so many ways – with their continental managers and their overseas players particularly – becoming the first club to take the field with a team without a single British or Irish player in a fixture against Southampton in 1999.

So, when the Russian oil magnate brought in Champions’ League winner José Mourinho to take over the team in 2004, almost everyone suspected that ‘the special one’ would produce a special team.

And so it proved. The Premier League was won on two consecutive occasions, as well as the F.A. Cup again and the League Cup (twice). From March 2004, the team embarked on a record-breaking run of 86 matches in which they remained unbeaten at their Stamford Bridge ground.

With some of England’s finest players – John Terry, Frank Lampard, Ashley and Joe Cole – and with some outstanding foreign imports – Didier Drogba, Michael Essien, Michael Ballack and Nicholas Anelka – the world sat and waited for the trophies to continue. And especially for the ‘holy grail’ that Abramovich wanted so much; that Champions’ League.

And yet for the past two seasons Chelsea have flattered to deceive – and frustrated their supporters so much. There are occasions when they are so powerful they overwhelm even the strongest opponents; almost bullying them into submission because of their physical, and mental, superiority. But there seems to have been some fatal flaw in the club’s make-up that has stopped them making that ultimate breakthrough.

Some have said that it’s because some of the overseas players have not been committed enough; but then when they showed their passion and commitment after losing controversially to Barcelona in 2009 those same players were criticised for their lack of sportsmanship.

Some have blamed successive managers for not being able to control ‘big’ players – as if that was ever a problem for someone like Luiz Felipe Scolari.

Some have even blamed Abramovich for either losing patience with Mourinho too quickly in 2007 or apparently losing some of his enthusiasm for the club for a while.

But now, having failed to persuade the admirable Guus Hiddink to remain at the club after his rejuvenation of the team in his short spell in charge, Chelsea have appointed someone who has won the Champions’ League Trophy twice as a player and twice as a manager. Surely, Stamford Bridge – a wonderfully atmospheric ground to watch your football compared to some of the other more ‘soul-less’ stadiums around – is going to be able to witness something only the most optimistic of fans would have dreamed possible twenty short years ago; a team capable of winning the Champions’ League.

If Carlo Ancelotti can’t bring the trophy in, where on earth will they turn next?

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Fulham stunned Chelsea at Craven Cottage with a 1-0 win although ugly scenes after the match threatened to mar a spectacular victory for Chris Coleman’s men. Luis Boa Morte fired the winner for the 7/1 Cottagers after 17 minutes while Didier Drogba had a Chelsea equaliser ruled out for handball.

Manchester United tightened their grip on second-place but made hard work of a 2-1 win at West Bromwich Albion. United, a best priced 1/2 saw Louis Saha net on 16 and 64 minutes although Nathan Ellington’s goal 12 minutes from time set up a tense finale.

Liverpool reduced Manchester United’s second place to two points but they have played two games more following Sunday’s 3-1 win at Newcastle United. Peter Crouch scored after nine minutes for the 11/8 Reds while Steven Gerrard doubled the advantage on 34. Shola Ameobi gave the Magpies hope five minutes before the break but Djibril Cisse’s penalty on 51 secured a precious away win.

Tottenham Hotspur continued their charge for a place in next season’s Champions League with a 2-0 win at Birmingham. Relegation threatened City held firm for 66 minutes until Aaron Lennon netted his first goal for the 5/4 Spurs. The in-form Robbie Keane added a second 13 minutes from the end to maintain Martin Jol’s side’s fourth placed position.

Arsenal are not giving up on league matters just yet and demolished Charlton 3-0 at Highbury. The Gunners were heavily odds on at 2/5 and took just 13 minutes to lead through Robert Pires. Emmanuel Adebayor got on the scoresheet after 32 and Alexsander Hleb completed the masterclass four minutes into the second half.

Blackburn also earned maximum points in a 3-2 win against Middlesbrough. The in-form Craig Bellamy opened the scoring for 5/6 Rovers after 11 minutes only for Mark Viduka to equalise five minutes later. Morten Gamst Pedersen restored the lead for Rovers but Fabio Rochemback levelled on 62. Bellamy fired in a superb personal second six minutes later to seal victory for Mark Hughes’ team.

Portsmouth edged towards three points off safety with a rousing 4-2 win at manager Harry Redknapp’s former club West Ham. Portsmouth, 7/2 outsiders before kick-off, found themselves 3-0 up at half time.

Everton may make a late bid for Europe after destroying Aston Villa 4-1, their sixth consecutive victory. James McFadden broke the deadlock after 16 minutes for the 4/5 Toffees and further goals from Tim Cahill and Leon Osman gave David Moyes’ side a commanding half-time lead. Debutante Gabriel Agbonlahor gave the Villains hope but Cahill netted his second of the game in stoppage time.

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Robbie van Persie will not turn out for Gunners in Saturdays match against Bolton. Van Persie is nursing an ankle injury he picked up against Blackburn, in Arsenal’s third match, of this Premiership season.

Also, there is a question mark over Theo Walcott, after he sustained an injury in Engalnd’s Euro qualifier against Switzerland.

However, the Emirates squad will be happy to see Nasri, Djourou, Denilson, and Squillaci back in training.

Bolton are currently in fifth place on the league table, behind Arsenal second, but it cannot be said with any certainty that they will stay there for long.

That said, Owen Coyle’s squad have given a good account of themselves, in their three matches so far, with two draws and a win.

In Bolton’s favour, Nicklas Bendtner will also be missing from Arsenal’s line-up.

Arsenal will have home advantage in their favour. The teams last met at Emirates in January. On that occasion, Bolton went up 2-0, and Arsenal rallied to win 4-2.

In their last home match against Blackpool, Arsenal steamrolled the relegation favourites, 6-0. But they cannot expect to have it quite as easy against Bolton.

10-man Bolton came back from 2-0 down against Birmingham to draw the match.

Theo Walcott could be crucial to Gunners’ dominance, and the memory of his hat-trick against Bolton will egg the crowd on to give their best shout on the day.

Fabregas who has recently returned from injury will also want to figure on the score-sheet, for Arsenal.

Arsenal could probably go with a line-up that reads as under: Almunia, Koscielny, Sagna, Clichy, Vermaelen, Fabregas, Song, Diaby, rosicky, Chamakh, and Arshavin.

Bolton’s starting eleven would probably be: Bogdan, Cahill, Steinsson, Robinson, Knight., Muamba, Lee, Petrov, Holden, Elmander and Davies.

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A one club stalwart who always plays with absolute commitment, Jamie Carragher is one of the Premier League’s most dependable defenders. One of the very first names on the team sheet for over a decade, Carragher is the epitome of what supporters love to see on the pitch – a local lad who knows just how much the club means to the people who pay to watch games.

Despite growing up as an Everton supporter -and having to read listen to rumours for years about having an Everton tattoo on his arm – Jamie Carragher has been at Anfield all of his professional career. Alongside his fellow Evertonian and school friend at the now defunct Lilleshall School of Excellence, Michael Owen, Jamie became a member of the Liverpool Youth team that won the FA Youth Cup in 1996. After making his league debut in the 1996/97 season, he established himself in the first team squad the following season.

During his early first team years, Carragher both benefited and suffered from his undoubted versatility. His all-round defensive qualities led to him playing at right back, left back and in midfield as well as in central defensive positions. He had the curse of the utility man – he was usually in the team but never able to claim a position that was really his own.

It was Rafa Benitez who eventually decided to install Carragher into the centre of the defence permanently when he arrived from Valencia at the beginning of the 2004/05 season. The partnership formed between Jamie and Sami Hyypia became the foundation of the team that went on to memorably defeat Milan in the Champions’ League Final at the end of that season. Carragher, the captain on that illustrious occasion, will always be remembered by Liverpool supporters for that famous last ditch tackle at the end of extra time when he was barely able to walk because of cramp.

Controversially, and for many people regrettably, Jamie Carragher decided to bring his international career to an early end when, in 2007, he told the manager, Steve McClaren that he was no longer available for selection. After 34 appearances since 1999, the frustration of being unable to hold down a regular position persuaded him to concentrate on his Liverpool career.

Although he has never been the quickest of defenders, Jamie Carragher has always shown an uncanny ability of being able to ‘read’ situations in advance. Also able to time tackles well, his recent sending off against Fulham – itself a debatable decision – was his first for seven years. More than anything, though, it is his willingness to put his body in the way of anything that has always endeared him to Liverpool followers.

At 31 years of age, Jamie Carragher should have several more seasons of top level football ahead of him. Already he has played in more European matches than any other Liverpool player and, although he is unlikely to overtake Ian Callaghan’s 857 first team appearances, he already has 590 to his credit. This means that he is ninth on the list and, with Alan Hansen and Bruce Grobbelaar not too far ahead of him, he could overtake them this season. It’s less likely, however, that Ian Rush’s total of 346 goals will come under threat; Jamie has four to his credit so far!

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There can’t be many players, if any, who have been selected for a World Cup squad before they have made their Premier League debut. If it comes to that, there can’t be many who have been transferred for something like £5 million pounds after making just 21 appearances in the Football league Championship.

And when you remember that the transfer from Southampton to Arsenal came when Theo Walcott was only 16 years old and he was a mere17 at the time of the World Cup call-up, you’ll have some idea of the impact this player had.

Certainly anybody who had seen some of the fantastic goals that Theo Walcott had scored for Southampton wouldn’t have been in the least surprised. From the minute he made his debut – at Elland Road against Leeds of all places – he looked completely at home; scoring in his first three league games, in fact. It was his pace that caught the eye first. Then his ability to control the ball whilst running at speed. Even his positional awareness seemed far beyond his years. Not forgetting that priceless ability to be able to put the ball into the back of the net.

By the time Theo had signed for Arsenal, he had shown just why Nike had decided to sponsor him when he was only 14 years old.

I suppose everybody, probably including the player himself, fully expected Walcott to have a few years in Arsenal’s abundantly talented reserve squad, with a few League Cup games helping him make the next step up. It was when Sven-Goran Erikkson saw the player in training, though, that he decided to take him to the 2006 World Cup – ahead of established Premier League goalscorers such as Jermaine Defoe.

Of course, none of the controversy that followed Walcott into the summer tournament had anything to do with the player himself – and must have been very difficult for such a young man to cope with. Never have as many cameras seemed to focus on a player who didn’t even get on the pitch – and then he had to come back to try to establish himself at Arsenal.

To his credit, Theo Walcott always behaved in a totally professional manner and, upon his return to London, after making his first team Premier League debut as substitute on the first day of the season. From then on, he went from strength to strength – both literally and metaphorically. The young, fragile Walcott was physically developing and his mental strength was also clearly apparent.

Mainly operating on the right wing, Walcott gradually began making a greater impact on Arsenal matches and, by September 2008, his career had progressed enough for him to be selected for his country in a World Cup Qualifying match against Andorra. It was, though, in the stunning away victory in Croatia when the hat-trick scoring forward’s class totally shone out.

Just when it looked as if he was going to fully cement his position for both club and country, however, a shoulder dislocation led to four months out of the game. Although he returned to score important goals in the Champions League against Villarreal and Chelsea in the FA Cup semi-final, this season has seen further disruption. Apparently, Theo has been spending some of his time developing his skills as a children’s author; having signed a contract to write two stories about a schoolboy superhero – who it just so happens is a footballer.

At the time of writing, Theo Walcott has just successfully finished his first full game of the season for Arsenal – in the Champions League against Olympia – and everyone at the club, as well as every England supporter, will be hoping he can quickly show the kind of form that will get him into another World Cup squad. This time, though, he ought to get on the pitch.

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